On January 1, 2025, Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through the Ukrainian gas pipeline. Despite criticism of this decision by the Prime Minister of Slovakia and the shutdown of heating and hot water in Transnistria, the European Commission and some other EU leaders generally supported the cessation of gas transit after the expiration of the five-year agreement between Ukraine and Russia. However, there has recently been speculation — by, among others, Serbian President Vučić — that by the end of 2025, Russian gas will be supplied to Europe through the Nord Stream gas pipelines.

This market will resolve the same as the following forecasting question on Glimt.nu this is mirroring. Its resolution criteria are:

This question will resolve as Yes if by any point during 2025 natural gas is delivered via any of the pipelines NS1 A, NS1 B, NS2 A or NS2 B to Lubmin, Germany, as reported by AFP, AP or Reuters.