Resolution criteria

Valve has not officially announced that a new Half-Life game is in development. This market resolves YES if Valve makes an official public announcement of Half-Life 3 (or any Half-Life sequel/spinoff with a number or subtitle) at any point during 2026. The announcement must come directly from Valve through official channels (press release, social media, website, press conference, or major gaming event presentation). Rumors, leaks, datamined code, or third-party speculation do not count. The market resolves NO if no such official announcement occurs by December 31, 2026.

Background

Since 2021, dataminers have found code snippets in Valve projects related to something internally called "HLX," which appears to be a single-player, non-VR FPS featuring a character in an HEV suit who fights aliens and soldiers through various levels while possibly solving physics-based puzzles. According to journalist Mike Straw from Insider Gaming, Half-Life 3 is reportedly set to be a Steam Machine launch game, with Valve targeting Spring 2026. Valve is reportedly holding back the announcement due to ongoing RAM pricing issues affecting the PC industry, which will impact the price of the Steam Machine.

Considerations

The Game Awards 2025 did not include a trailer, reveal, announcement, or even teaser for Half-Life 3, despite widespread speculation. Valve has a history of telling different people different announcement dates internally to identify leakers, which has contributed to conflicting rumors. All reported announcement dates from 2025 have passed without official confirmation from Valve.