48-Hour Strait-of-Hormuz Closure Before 31 Dec 2025?
14
Ṁ1083Dec 30
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Question – Will commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drop below 20 % of its 2024 daily average for a continuous 48-hour period before 31 December 2025?
Method
Baseline: 2024 mean daily transits of vessels ≥10 000 DWT carrying oil/products (Lloyd’s List Intelligence).
Closure condition: AIS-verified transits ≤20 % of that baseline for ≥48 consecutive hours.
YES on first occurrence meeting the condition; NO if none by cutoff.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
14% chance
Will Iran cause a halt or full shutdown to oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2025?
19% chance
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2025?
6% chance
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will Iran or its proxies attack Oil Infrastructure in a Gulf State by July 31, 2025?
8% chance
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2026?
20% chance
Will Iran blockade the Strait of Hormuz before Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip ends?
17% chance
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz to international shipping in 2025
13% chance
Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
26% chance
Will the U.S. strike Iran’s oil or gas infrastructure by August 31, 2025?
22% chance