The Fed will likely cut rates by a quarter percentage point next week, the first cut since last December. But two Fed governors dissented against the rate decision at the July meeting, in favor of cutting rates then, and those who favor a looser policy may argue for a larger cut now. Recent economic data, particularly the weak August jobs report, have strengthened the case for more aggressive easing.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a 100% probability of at least a quarter-percentage point cut at September Federal Reserve meeting.

Heading into the meeting, the target range has been 4.25%–4.50% (midpoint 4.375%), per FRED’s daily upper- and lower-limit series. (fred.stlouisfed.org)