Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is serving as President of the United States on December 31, 2027. Resolution will be determined by checking official sources such as the White House website or news reports confirming Trump's status as sitting president on that date. The market resolves NO if Trump is not president on that date, including scenarios where he has resigned, been removed from office, or lost an election. If Trump dies in office, the market resolves NO.

Background

Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States on Monday, January 20, 2025, and is the second President in American history to serve two nonconsecutive terms. His first term ran from 2017 to 2021. The date in question (12/31/2027) falls near the end of his current four-year term, which would conclude on January 20, 2029.

Considerations

Presidential succession could occur through resignation, removal via impeachment and conviction, or death in office. While impeachment has been attempted against Trump previously, conviction requires a two-thirds Senate majority. Republicans currently control the Senate, making removal unlikely absent extraordinary circumstances.