Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by July the 1st, 2025, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces any formal consequences directly related to the recent second Signal leak incident. Formal consequences include, but are not limited to:

• Resignation or termination from his position

• Official reprimand or censure

• Legal action or indictment

• Loss of security clearance

If no such formal consequences are documented by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

In April 2025, reports emerged that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared sensitive military plans concerning a March airstrike on Yemen's Houthi rebels via an unclassified Signal chat. This chat included his wife, brother, and personal lawyer. This incident follows a previous occurrence where similar classified information was inadvertently shared with a journalist due to a Signal app error. These disclosures have raised significant concerns about Hegseth's handling of classified material and the involvement of unauthorized individuals in sensitive defense matters. (reuters.com)

In response, the Pentagon initiated an internal investigation into the leaks. Several senior aides to Hegseth, including Dan Caldwell, Darin Selnick, and Colin Carroll, were placed on administrative leave or dismissed amid the probe. These officials have publicly questioned the legitimacy of the investigation and denied any wrongdoing. (reuters.com)