Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Daniel Lurie announces a candidacy for California Governor before January 1, 2035. Resolution will be determined by credible news reports from major outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, NPR, major newspapers) confirming an official announcement of his gubernatorial campaign. The announcement must be made by Lurie himself or his official campaign representatives. This market resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.

Background

Daniel Lurie is the Mayor of San Francisco, having assumed office on January 8, 2025. His current mayoral term ends on January 8, 2029. Lurie is an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune through his mother. According to a San Francisco Chronicle poll released on July 21, 2025, 73% of 961 respondents approved of Lurie's mayorship. California Governor Gavin Newsom cannot run again due to term limits, with his term ending in 2027.

Considerations

During his 2024 mayoral campaign, Lurie stated "I am not running for anything in Sacramento or D.C." and expressed his focus on turning around San Francisco over an 8-year period. However, political positions can change, and candidates often reassess their ambitions after taking office. The 2026 California gubernatorial race will be the first open seat race since Newsom took office, potentially creating an opportunity for statewide candidates.