Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on official announcements from Tesla or verifiable reports of the Cybertruck's discontinuation.

The discontinuation date will be considered the earliest date when:

• Rebrand: The product name is changed to something substantially other than Cybertruck, OR

• Discontinuation: Tesla officially announces the end of Cybertruck production with no plans to restart, OR

• Internal stealth discontinuation: Tesla takes internal steps to permanently wind down production (e.g. permanently stands down factory lines, switches to selling off existing inventory, reassigns all team members, even if they don’t announce publicly), OR

• Business failure: Tesla as a company ceases to exist (default, merge/acquisition), … If a successor company takes up producing the Cybertruck brand but doesn’t have “Tesla” in their company name, it’s a discontinuation.

If Tesla is discovered to have internally discontinued the Cybertruck on date X but an announcement is made on date Y, the resolution date will be the earlier of the two. E.g. “Yeah, we shut down the factory line a year ago and have just been selling off stock of vehicles since then” —> market resolves to “a year ago”

If Tesla temporarily suspends production but explicitly states plans to resume, this will NOT count as discontinuation. If Tesla replaces the Cybertruck with a successor while maintaining the same basic concept and design philosophy, this will NOT count as discontinuation.

If they call their next thing a CyberCar, idk what to do. Currently leaning towards counting this as a worthy continuation of the product line, because the intent behind the market is to test how long the “Cyber⋯” brand continues to be broadly marketable and appealing.

Considerations

• Tesla has never discontinued a major vehicle line before, making historical precedent difficult to establish

• The Cybertruck represents a significant investment in unique manufacturing processes and equipment

• Market performance and regulatory changes could influence the timeline

• The automotive industry's transition to electric vehicles and changing consumer preferences may impact the product's longevity

• As of writing (2025 Jan), Cybertruck production seems to be paused temporarily due to poor sales, but it’s unclear whether the product will recover