By December 31, 2025, will any NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member country announce the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in military defense decision-making?

• What constitutes a "Yes"?

  A "Yes" vote is reached when any NATO country (not NATO as an organization) decides to use any type of AI for national and military defense decision-making.

  Examples:

  • Belgium decides to use generative AI to improve its national defense strategy against hacker attacks;

  • Bulgaria enters a war and begins using AI to improve its military attack and defense strategies;

  • Türkiye is threatened with tariffs by another country and uses AI to respond appropriately;

  • Montenegro is threatened with bombing and can begin using AI to respond appropriately to threats, plan future military strategies (if necessary), and invest in strategic sectors for national defense (such as cybersecurity or intelligence).

• What DOESN'T constitute a "Yes"?

  Improvement of military equipment

  • Example: Use of AI in drones, tanks, or weapons.

  Use of AI in combat in general

  • Example: Use of combat robots in battles;

  • Example: Missiles coupled with AI for precision hits.

  Ground tactics

  • Ground tactics refer to the strategies and techniques employed by ground forces in military operations. These tactics can include infantry, armor, and artillery movements, as well as the use of vehicles and support elements to accomplish assigned missions and tasks.

• Can this really happen?

  There are some signs this could happen:

  1. In 2023, NATO officially released its AI strategy, emphasizing military and security use. Member countries like the US and UK have already tested autonomous drones and AI-assisted targeting in simulations.

  2. Also, there's growing pressure from military think tanks to integrate AI into offensive capabilities, especially for cyber and hybrid warfare.

  So, it's possible.

If one or more of the things that constitute a "Yes" happen by December 31, 2025, then the market will close as "Yes." If not, it will close as "No."

If you have any questions, let me know in the comments.