Will "When Is Insurance Worth It?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Basic

2026

14%

chance

ALL

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post When Is Insurance Worth It? is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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