Background
According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), employers predict that 42% of tasks will be automated by 2027. However, this refers to individual tasks rather than entire jobs. Forrester Research projects that nearly 15 million new jobs will be created in the U.S. by 2027, particularly in areas like engineering, software, design, maintenance, support, and training.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if by January 1, 2027:
All remote jobs that do not legally require a human worker have been fully automated by AI systems
These AI systems are commercially available and deployed at scale
Human workers are no longer needed for any aspect of these jobs
The market will resolve NO if any remote jobs that don't legally require human workers still require human involvement by January 1, 2027.
Considerations
Many jobs require complex skills like judgment, empathy, creativity, and adaptability that are currently difficult to fully automate
While AI may automate specific tasks (e.g., 46% of administrative tasks and 44% of legal tasks), automating entire job functions is significantly more challenging
The question specifically addresses jobs that don't require a legal person, which excludes positions like lawyers, doctors, and other licensed professionals
Current AI systems are generally designed to augment human capabilities rather than fully replace workers
Historical predictions about automation timelines have often been overly optimistic about the pace of change
1,000
3.00This market will resolve YES if by January 1, 2027:
All remote jobs that do not legally require a human worker have been fully automated by AI systems
These AI systems are commercially available and deployed at scale
Human workers are no longer needed for any aspect of these jobs
The market will resolve NO if any remote jobs that don't legally require human workers still require human involvement by January 1, 2027.
Being fully automated, being commercially available, being deployed at scale, and humans not being needed seem like different criteria, is just one or all of them needed to resolve yes?
How does it resolve if humans aren't required (i.e. it physically could be automated) but they haven't actually been replaced everywhere in practice (e.g. not enough time has transpired to actually set up all the automation, not every company in the world can afford the initial investment yet, not all customers are willing to accept certain automated services etc.)?