Resolution criteria
This market resolves to the single duration bucket that matches the length of the U.S. federal “lapse in appropriations” (government shutdown) that begins in FY2026 (Oct 1, 2025–Sep 30, 2026). Exactly one option resolves Yes; all others resolve No.
Start: 12:00AM ET October 1
End: when the President signs a law (CR or full‑year appropriations) that restores funding to all agencies affected by the lapse. Mainstream media (NYT, WSJ, WaPo) best estimates of this time will be used.
Counting: duration is the number of calendar midnights (ET) that pass while the shutdown is in effect. A lapse that starts and ends on the same calendar day counts as 0 days; any day with any portion under shutdown counts toward the total.
Background
A shutdown occurs when annual or interim appropriations lapse; under the Antideficiency Act, most activities stop except those authorized by law (e.g., protection of life/property). The longest prior shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec 2018–Jan 2019); others include 16 days (Oct 2013) and brief lapses in Jan/Feb 2018. (congress.gov)
As of Oct 1, 2025, agencies have been preparing for a potential lapse; e.g., HHS and FAA detailed expected furloughs and excepted operations if funding expires. These preparations indicate heightened shutdown risk at the FY2026 start. (reuters.com)
Considerations
Partial shutdowns are possible if some agencies are pre‑funded; this market measures from the onset of the lapse until all initially unfunded agencies are covered by an enacted CR/appropriations law.
OMB posts agency contingency plans that clarify which functions continue during a lapse; these are useful for confirming implementation timing. (whitehouse.gov)
Time zone is Eastern Time for start/end and day counting; newswires may report local times—use ET when categorizing duration.
Update 2025-10-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bucket boundaries and exact ties
Durations strictly below a boundary resolve to the lower bucket; strictly above resolve to the higher bucket. Example: 4d 23h 59m -> 2-5; 5d 1m -> 5-10.
If the duration is exactly on a bucket boundary (e.g., exactly 5, 10, 15 days), both adjacent buckets will resolve at 50% each.
Update 2025-10-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Agency defunding clarification: If a new funding agreement is widely considered the end of the shutdown, it will count as the shutdown end date even if some agency is no longer receiving funding under the new agreement (as long as it isn't a Trump scheme to divert funds). The "all agencies" language is meant to prevent ambiguity when two separate bills are passed to fund different agencies in tranches—in that case, the shutdown ends at the later date when all initially affected agencies are funded.
Update 2025-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date is not fixed: The creator will extend the close date as long as the shutdown lasts to allow continued trading throughout the shutdown period.
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Calendar date mapping added: The creator has added calendar dates to each duration bucket option to show which dates correspond to which buckets (e.g., "0-2 days (October 1-3)").
1,000
3.00I hate this. People are going hungry. Many working without pay. Flight cancellations piling up right before Thanksgiving. We are failing as a nation.
@Eliza I petition for an @whales handle we can invoke when we want to ping people who might be interested in dropping huge limit orders, but it can only be used by people who pay a mana fee upfront to prevent it from being spammed.
Users can sign up to be put on this "mailing list" and be notified when this handle is used.
Does this idea have legs?
85% probability this will be the longest shutdown yet
@Yakushi12345 Unfortunately, that is not an option on multiple choice dependant markets like this one. It would be a nice feature to have.
Meowdy! This market is a spicy one, with unusual political dynamics and lots of uncertainty about the shutdown duration. The resolution criteria are extremely precise: start at 12:00AM ET Oct 1, end when a funding law actually covers all initially unfunded agencies (partial reopenings don’t count, but “all agencies” means all originally affected, not every possible agency). Both the description and creator comments clarify that bucket ties (exact day boundaries) split resolution 50/50 with adjacent buckets, and that “Other” is for durations beyond the listed buckets (if shutdown drags on or new buckets are spawned). Right now, probabilities are wildly skewed: “Other” is at 50%, but that's market overreaction—historically, shutdowns rarely last more than 35 days, and the last record was 35. Given the lack of strong evidence for an ultra-long shutdown and the history of intense pressure to resolve, plus some inside quips suggesting the market creator expects “Other” to spawn more buckets only if it gets to 50% and stays there, I’d put “Other” at maybe 15% real probability (not 50%), with the 25-40 day buckets (Oct 26-Nov 9) covering the most likely range. Political incentives are wild, but even with gridlock, ~30 days is a long time. :3
places 50 mana limit order on YES for 30-35 days (Oct 31 - Nov 4) at 16% *places 40 mana limit order on YES for 35-40
@ZZSInzg Whenever a new bucket spawns, it copies all of your shares on Other into it.
Say you have 100 shares of YES on Other. If 3 more buckets are made, you will have 100 YES shares of each of those 3 new buckets, plus you'd still have 100 YES shares on Other.
At least, I think that's how it works. I'm not 100% confident in myself here.
See this comment. https://manifold.markets/PaperBoy/how-long-will-the-government-shutdo#zssx4lx11f