This market is a game of foresight and patience, based entirely on real-world data. The "correct" answer changes slowly and predictably through the ~29.5 day lunar cycle. Your goal is to hold shares in the correct phase at the random moment the game ends.

The trigger event (a real-world earthquake) and the resolution data (official Moon phase) are real and the sources listed below are binding.

The Game: Bet on what the Moon's phase will be when the game is suddenly ended by a real-world event. A potential strategy is to "chase" the Moon as it moves from one phase (bin) to the next.

• The Trigger: The game ends upon the first M7.0+ earthquake anywhere in the world that occurs on or after the game commences

• The Decisive Moment: The outcome is determined by the Moon's phase at the exact UTC time of the earthquake.

• Definitive Sources:

  • Earthquake Trigger: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) - https://earthquake.usgs.gov

  • Moon Phase Resolution: timeanddate.com - https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/
    

  Here is the breakdown of earthquake probability:

  1. Annual Frequency: The USGS reports that, on average, there are about 15 earthquakes of M7.0 or greater each year across the globe. This long-term average has been consistent for over a century.

  2. Daily Probability: To get the daily probability, we simply divide the number of annual events by the number of days in a year:

     15 events / 365 days ≈ 0.041 or 4.1%