
Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
9
Ṁ4552029
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?
Resolves after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).
Definition of "Broadly Centrist" Parties:
Included as "broadly centrist": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens
Not included as "broadly centrist": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party)
Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum
"Majority" means collectively holding more than 50% of seats in the Bundestag
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
65% chance
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
31% chance