[February 2025] - Has weak superintelligence been achieved?
[February 2025] - Has weak superintelligence been achieved?
17
resolved Mar 3
Yes
No
No opinion
On or before February 23, 2025, had weak superintelligence been achieved?
This poll is one of a series of monthly polls tracking public opinion of AI progress. The definition of "superintelligence" is not provided, and which software system(s) achieved it is up to the respondent to define. However, a "weak" system is not required to be able to manipulate the physical world.
MANIFOLD PROGRESS POLLS SERIES:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?
87% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
27% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
80% chance
Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?
37% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
70% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
44% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
87% chance
Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?
15% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
42% chance
Will humanity wipe out superintelligent AI before 2040?
15% chance