Manifold The Site 2026 Prop Bets
24
Ṁ40252026
35%
Raises $10M+ in external funding
9%
Site shuts down permanently/indefinitely
22%
Partner-esque program (re)launches
34%
A founder returns
60%
ReReRePivot (a new method for real money launches)
41%
Active traders (daily 7d avg) >2000 at any point
29%
Top-10 user on profit/creator/referral leaderboard permabanned
29%
Mana Merch Shop sells Ṁ10M+
28%
A mod permabanned
54%
Mentioned in NYT
18%
New currency
12%
Acquired by another prediction market company
29%
3+ ManifestXs
54%
Manifest happens and >600 attendees
19%
Site completely offline for continuous 24h+
41%
$10k+ mana sales in one day
72%
New type(s) of user badge
55%
Mana-purchasable profile flair
86%
Anybody stays in Masters all 12 months
72%
New market type
What's going to be new? What's going to change or stay the same? What's going to happen AGAIN?
Must happen in 2026. Illegitimate stuff won't count, ofc.
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