Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030
Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030
➕
Plus
21
Ṁ2136
2031
19%
chance

At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track

Connecting each sides mainland, not islands

(Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine)

You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


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bought Ṁ50 NO10mo

and on track

easy NO

8mo

Not completely sure what "on track" means here. I read it as "The project is reasonably on track according to some official timeline that has 'Bridge Opening' at its end".

predictedNO 1y

Would a tunnel count?

predictedNO 1y

@mariopasquato nope

"You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries"

it has to be above the water. Basically a pedestrian, train, car, etc bridge which physically connects the two sides and which a human could go across.

predictedNO 1y

@Ernie Ferries excluded :-)

predictedNO 1y

@mariopasquato definitely. it has to be relatively fixed. if it were a semipermanent boat which cars could drive over, but which also could sail away... that's a toughie.

predictedNO 1y

@Ernie Hey, don't forget about giant (floating) pontoon bridges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreen_Point_Floating_Bridge :P

predictedNO 1y

@RobertCousineau yeah.

anyway I'm looking for something that is really a bridge. at least semi-permanent, resistant to all normal weather, planned to last at least 50 years etc. I think that's reasonable considering the other markets in this category "mega-bridges"

predictedNO 1y

For a base rate, since the birth of the Republic Italy had N=31 prime ministers. Let’s call f the fraction of those who wanted to build a bridge. If p is the probability of success, the probability that they would all fail (assuming independent attempts, which is obviously wrong) would be (1-p)^(fN).

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