When will Bryan Caplan buy his first driverless car?
Basic
18
Ṁ19302041
1.9%
2024
16%
2025
4%
2026
8%
2027
6%
2028
6%
2029
5%
2030
7%
2031
6%
2032
7%
2033
6%
2034
7%
2035
1.7%
2036
1.7%
2037
1.7%
2038
1.7%
2039
1.6%
2040
12%
2041 or later
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Given his poll options start at 2028, I assume we're talking a fully driverless car, right?
Is there a reason he thinks he's going to buy one instead of just hailing one when he needs it. (In which case resolution is never)
Does he have a tesla, perchance. This would be a weird way for it to resolve where by the time he has a driverless car, it will be a car that he bought 4-7 years prior.
Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on me travelling to the Bay Area in the next 18 months, will I take a ride in a driverless car?
79% chance
When will it first be possible to rent an autonomous vehicle to drive between cities in North America without a license?
When will a large majority of rideshare be done by self-driving cars?
Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop
79% chance
Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to San Francisco (or back) by the end of 2025?
17% chance
Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from SF to the Palo Alto area or back by the end of 2025?
47% chance
By which year will there be self-driving cars in Chicago?
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
39% chance
By which year will there be self-driving cars in Houston?
Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
80% chance