Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?
2
Ṁ21
2030
50%
chance

Resolves YES if we learn from a credible source that there exists a model whose 'descendants' include an o* reasoning model and a gpt-4o model, or the same for an o*-mini model and a gpt-4o-mini model.
'Descendant' means a model resulting from a fine-tune or weight merge of an existing model, but not an architectural heal or multi-model ensemble.
Resolves NO if (demonstrably) no pair of o* and gpt-4o or o*-mini and gpt-4o-mini models hosted at the time of creation meet the criteria. Demonstration could include attacks such as recovering the model's hidden width or last layer from served logprobs.

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