What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
3
Ṁ166
2026
83%
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.
66%
SSI will release a product
66%
Nvidia will outperform the S&P
66%
I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning
50%
I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.
50%
Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP
50%
The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.
50%
An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters
50%
The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china
50%
The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked
34%
OpenAI IPO
34%
Anthropic IPO
34%
I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting
34%
One of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy
8%
An LLM will beat me at chess

Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below. If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement.

Clarifications

"SSI will release a product": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist.


"Nvidia will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year. It's not sufficient for Nvidia to outperform at some point in the year.


"An LLM will beat me at chess": See this market:

“Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP” : according to this source or some other official announcement by the org.


"The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours": At 50% success rate, acoording to this source.

#️ Technology
#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
#OpenAI
#AI Impacts
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