Resolution Criteria: Cultivated Meat 5% US Revenue Share

• Resolves to: The first calendar year cultivated meat achieves at least 5.0% of total US meat market revenue.

• Market Definition: Total US revenue (retail & food service) from cultivated meat + conventional meat (beef, pork, poultry, seafood, etc.). The specific scope and categorization defining the "total US meat market" will align with the definition used by the primary data source(s) relied upon for resolution in a given year.

• Cultivated Meat Revenue: Includes total revenue from products primarily marketed as containing, or clearly featuring, cultivated meat, even if blended with other ingredients (e.g., plant-based proteins, conventional meat). Revenue from products where cultivated meat is only a trace or incidental component, or not a defining feature according to market/source categorization, may be excluded if reliable data allows such differentiation. Where available and clear, categorization provided by the resolution data source(s) will be preferred.

• Threshold: At least 5.0% revenue share must be met for a full calendar year (Jan 1 - Dec 31).

• Resolution Date: Resolved based on the specific year the threshold is met. Note that "before" means "strictly before" (e.g., "Before 2030" resolves if the threshold is met in 2029 or earlier).

• Sources (Prioritized):

  1. Official US Government statistics (e.g., USDA Economic Research Service [ERS], Bureau of Economic Analysis [BEA]).

  2. Major market research firms (e.g., NielsenIQ, Circana, Euromonitor International).

  3. Credible industry groups (e.g., Good Food Institute [GFI], North American Meat Institute [NAMI]).

  4. A clear consensus among multiple credible sources if a single primary source is insufficient.

• Timing: Resolution occurs when reliable data for a full calendar year becomes available. This may be 1-2 years after the calendar year in question concludes, depending on data reporting schedules.

• End Date: If the threshold is not confirmed to have been met for any calendar year up to and including December 31, 2070, the market will resolve to "NO". (Resolution would occur once reliable reports covering the full year 2070 become available, likely in 2071-2072).

• Ambiguity: If the definition of "cultivated meat" varies significantly between otherwise reliable sources, precedence will be given to the definition used by the highest-ranked available source. If data is deemed insufficient, fundamentally unreliable (e.g., due to widespread reporting errors), or if a major, prolonged disruption significantly impacts the US economy or food supply chain in a way that renders the data incomparable or meaningless for this question, the market may resolve as "N/A" or resolution may be delayed pending clarification or moderator/trader consultation.
  
  Resolution criteria generated by Gemini 2.5 and hand-checked.
  
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