Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either of the two remaining northern white rhinoceroses, Najin or Fatu, gives birth to a calf by December 31, 2029. Verification will be based on official announcements from the Ol Pejeta Conservancy or other reputable conservation organizations.

Background

Najin and Fatu are the last two northern white rhinos, residing at the Ol Pejeta Conservancy in Kenya. Both are incapable of natural reproduction: Najin has weak hind legs, and Fatu has uterine issues. (phys.org)

To prevent the subspecies' extinction, scientists have developed in vitro fertilization (IVF) techniques, creating embryos from eggs harvested from Fatu and sperm from deceased males. These embryos are intended for implantation into southern white rhino surrogates. (nationalgeographic.com)

In 2023, a southern white rhino surrogate named Curra was implanted with an embryo, resulting in a pregnancy. Unfortunately, Curra died from a bacterial infection before giving birth. (apnews.com)

Considerations

Given Najin and Fatu's inability to carry pregnancies, any birth would result from successful implantation of embryos into surrogate mothers. The timeline for such efforts is uncertain, and the success rate of these procedures remains to be seen.