Resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is removed or extended past January 19th 2025, 23:59 ET.
If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok never becomes unavailable to download for the majority of US residents. This applies even if the deadline technically runs out before the extension takes effect.
Otherwise, this market will resolve No as soon as TikTok the deadline is passed and there are no plans for an extension. If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No.
1,000
3.00From the NYT
The chief executive of TikTok plans to attend President-elect Donald J. Trump’s inauguration and has been invited to sit in a position of honor on the dais, where former presidents, family members and other important guests traditionally are seated, two people familiar with the plans said on Wednesday.
The invitation to the executive, Shou Chew, went out from the Trump Vance Inaugural Committee, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the inauguration on Monday. Mr. Chew will join Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk on the dais, along with other tech executives at the event, according to two people with knowledge of the planning.
This weekend is going to be fun...
edit: never mind, AFAIK, this is almost definitely gonna resolve to NO: Supreme Court is gonna uphold and, whilst users will be able to access the app, downloads are not going to be available
@vitamind I believe under the law TikTok would need to have in place the relevant binding agreements to enable execution of divestiture during the extension period for Biden to legally grant a 90-day extension.
That's old news bro, and he doesn't get into office until after Jan 19 so he couldn't affect the result of this market if he tried
@Symmetry His oligarch gang have power since the Republicans currently control Congress, but what I meant was Trump himself - specifically his executive order power - being entirely irrelevant to the resolution of the market.
@WillJevons Great question. Here's my answer: I am betting on the thing in the title happening.
(consider me 'dumb money' and vibes based betting here)
@mathvc Why was it so high before? If it was just about the time left one would expect a gradual decline.
@Shai TikTok announced that they would rather shutdown than divest and the Supreme Court arguments this week seem to lean towards the ban.