Will Manifold have real money markets with at least 1% of the active liquidity of Polymarket by end of 2025?
Basic
6
Ṁ1322026
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if monthly Manifold real money liquidity is at least 1% that of Polymarket.
Resolved N/A if I’m not able to find liquidity numbers for one or both sites.
The current estimates I would use are:
https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/prediction-markets-and-betting: $110m in “open interest”
https://manifold.markets/stats: $40k in “investment”
I’m open to changing which metrics are used, in case the above ones aren’t adequately apples-to-apples.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold have a numerical market type by June 1, 2025?
38% chance
Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025?
64% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025?
15% chance
Will Manifold implement another way to handle conditional markets before 2026?
65% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?
11% chance
Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
13% chance
Will there be a Manifold Markets competitor before 2025?
92% chance
Will Manifold support decision markets by the end of 2024?
3% chance