Resolution Criteria
Each answer will resolve YES if that individual accepts a presidential pardon from Joe Biden before he leaves office
Each answer will resolve NO if:
The individual explicitly declines a pardon that has been issued
Biden's term ends without that person receiving a pardon
If a pardon is offered but the individual's acceptance/rejection is unclear (after intense research and examination by myself) the market for that person will resolve N/A
Posthumous pardons will resolve YES
Given the unique nature of preemptive pardons (that is pardons where the person has not yet been accused of a crime) in that recipients of such pardons cannot publicly accept the pardon by entering it into evidence, it will be assumed that the recipient of a preemptive pardon will accept it, absent evidence to the contrary.
Both full and partial pardons qualify for YES resolution however, preemptive commutations will not count.
On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - This market refers to pardons and not communications. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Preemptive Pardon Declination Period: Recipients have one week to publicly decline a preemptive pardon.
Immediate Resolution upon Acceptance: If a recipient publicly accepts a pardon, it resolves immediately.
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - Adam Schiff Resolution Adjustment: The Adam Schiff market will resolve to 25% if no further statements are made regarding his pardon, reflecting his partial denunciation without an explicit pardon declination. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-25-01 (PST): - Pete Aguilar Resolution Adjustment: The Pete Aguilar market will resolve to 50% a week after the issuance of the pardon, unless further statements or evidence come to light. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - Adam Schiff and Pete Aguilar Resolution Adjustment: The markets for Adam Schiff and Pete Aguilar will resolve to N/A under the existing rules, unless further statements or evidence are provided. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Zoe Logfren and Jim Biden will resolve to 100% due to the lack of statements.
Adam Schiff and Pete Aguilar markets will resolve to N/A due to ambiguity in the rules and lack of appropriate resolution to "YES".
1,000
3.00@traders Given the lack of statements from Zoe Logfren and Jim Biden, those resolve to 100%. As to the statements made by Adam Schiff and Pete Agular given the ambiguity in the rules and the statements that I made, I feel it is not appropriate to resolve those to "YES" for the reasons I have previously stated. However, I also feel that it is not appropriate to resolve those in some other way. Accordingly, I think the most responsible thing to do is to resolve those markets N/A. I apologize for the mixed messages, ambiguity in the rules, and the inconvenience. I will ensure it doesn't happen again with my markets.
@traders Pete Aguilar is similar to Adam Schiff given his statement that he did not want a preemptive pardon however, he did not state that he thought the pardon was unwise after he received it, in fact, he stated that he understands why President Biden made this decision. To balance his multiple statements prior to the part of being issued arguing against the pardon and his lack of denunciation of the pardon, after it was issued, should know further statements or evidence coming to light the Pete Aguilar market will resolve to 50% a week after the issuance of the pardon.
If there are any questions, challenges, or disputes that you would like to make with this resolution, please reply to this comment.
@traders I have resolved all the markets that can be resolved now. I am still waiting for more info from all three of the remaining people. However, I would like to note something specific to the Adam Schiff market. Adam Schiff is unique among the three remaining people for two reasons. First, prior to the pardon being issued he stated, explicitly that he did not want a preemptive pardon. Second, after the pardon had been issued, he stated that the pardon was unwise and unnecessary. On one hand, this is a clear denunciation of the pardon issued to him however, on the other hand, Adam Schiff stopped short of explicitly declining the pardon. Accordingly, in accordance with the rules of the market, if there are no further statements issued by Adam Schiff regarding the pardon, the Adam Schiff market will resolve to 25% to account for both of these considerations. Additionally, this will not resolve N/A as this is a preemptive pardon, and the acceptance or rejection of the pardon, must be determined by public evidence of acceptance or rejection.
If there are any questions, challenges, or disputes that you would like to make with this resolution, please reply to this comment.
@AaronSimansky for Jim Biden, if he doesn't say anything you resolve YES per the general rules laid out for pre-emptive pardons, right?
@AaronSimansky as someone who bought yes shares to 99% before the clarification, I’m not thrilled about this. My read on “Given the unique nature of preemptive pardons (that is pardons where the person has not yet been accused of a crime) in that recipients of such pardons cannot publicly accept the pardon by entering it into evidence, it will be assumed that the recipient of a preemptive pardon will accept it, absent evidence to the contrary.” was that it would be pretty hard to decline the pardon. I don’t think anyone will pursue criminal claims against Schiff given the situation, and stating that it’s unwise but he understands the seems like weak evidence of rejection of the pardon. Schiff also states, “But I certainly understand why President Biden believed he needed to take this step in light of the persistent and baseless threats issued by Donald Trump and individuals who are now some of his law enforcement nominees.”
@benmanns My thinking when making that decision was that Adam Schiff came about as close to rejecting the pardon as someone could without having been charged with a crime. That being said, I understand your position. I am now becoming more inclined to resolve the Adam Schiff and Pete Agular markets N/A under the rules. If @traders would like to provide feedback on that idea I'd appreciate it.
@AaronSimansky Making a market is harder than it seems. Where a MC is in a bad situation, I prefer an N/A to splitting the baby with a resolution.
@Eric_WVGG He received a commutation, not a pardon! https://www.siouxlandproud.com/news/national-news/biden-commutes-sentence-of-native-american-activist-leonard-peltier/amp/
@traders While the market is set to close at noon today open (when Trump takes the office) it's possible that some options will not be resolved until a week from today to decide whether a recipient has accepted or declined the pardon. The question is whether this market should remain open for the week in which the decision can be made.
Voting is over.
@MaybeNotDepends Or the assumption is that they will accept it (especially for preemptive pardons which are most of the options). Hmm
@MaybeNotDepends for preemptive pardon, there will be a week for them to make a public statement declination of the pardon before the market resolves that they accepted the pardon according to the assumption (I assume the decision will be made far before that). People who are servant sentences will wait for their official statement on the record regarding their pardon, as generally, people who decline a pardon file a statement with the court to that effect.
@MaybeNotDepends there will be a week for people who are granted preemptive pardons to publicly say that they are declining it before it is assumed that they're accepting it. If they publicly state that they are accepting the pardon, then it will resolve immediately.
Each answer will resolve NO if:
The individual explicitly declines a pardon that has been issued
Biden's term ends without that person receiving a pardon
If a pardon is offered but the individual's acceptance/rejection is unclear (after intense research and examination by myself) the market for that person will resolve N/A
@MaybeNotDepends So this should be trading slightly below the odds of Biden granting pardons for each individual as it also includes the probability that he'd grant a pardon that someone doesn't "accept".
(I think Biden said he won't do this, but you never know).
@MaybeNotDepends My other question isn't about the rules and the resolution of this market - I'm more curious about the process of pardons. Do people have to accept pardons for them to happen (legally)?
@MaybeNotDepends Gemini AI says:
"A presidential pardon in the United States is not something that can be refused.
Automatic Effect: Once a president issues a pardon, it automatically takes effect.
Legal Forgivenesss: The pardon grants legal forgiveness for the specified offense(s).
Key Points:
Acceptance Not Required: The individual does not need to formally "accept" the pardon for it to be valid.
Restoration of Rights: A pardon typically restores certain civil rights, such as the right to vote, but the specific effects can vary."
@MaybeNotDepends For a pardon to take effect that person must enter the pardon into evidence before the court that has their case. Burdick v. United States, 236 U.S. 79 (1915). Commutations on the other hand likely cannot be refused. Biddle v. Perovich, 274 U.S. 480 (1927)
@MaybeNotDepends two of the death row inmates who had their sentences commuted are trying to fight their mandatory acceptance of their commutations so I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/two-prisoners-cant-legally-object-bidens-death-row-commutations-doj-ar-rcna186280. Additionally, a pardon can have conditions, and it's possible that acceptance of a pardon carries an imputation of guilt.