Resolution Criteria
Each answer will resolve YES if that individual accepts a presidential pardon from Joe Biden before he leaves office
Each answer will resolve NO if:
The individual explicitly declines a pardon that has been issued
Biden's term ends without that person receiving a pardon
If a pardon is offered but the individual's acceptance/rejection is unclear (after intense research and examination by myself) the market for that person will resolve N/A
Posthumous pardons will resolve YES
Given the unique nature of preemptive pardons (that is pardons where the person has not yet been accused of a crime) in that recipients of such pardons cannot publicly accept the pardon by entering it into evidence, it will be assumed that the recipient of a preemptive pardon will accept it, absent evidence to the contrary.
Both full and partial pardons qualify for YES resolution however, preemptive commutations will not count.
On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - This market refers to pardons and not communications. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For a pardon to take effect, the individual must enter the pardon into evidence before the court handling their case, as per Burdick v. United States, 236 U.S. 79 (1915).
Commutations cannot be refused and do not require acceptance.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarifications:
Acceptance Challenges: Some individuals may attempt to contest mandatory acceptance of commutations.
Conditional Pardons: A pardon can include conditions, and acceptance may imply an imputation of guilt.
1,000
3.00
Each answer will resolve NO if:
The individual explicitly declines a pardon that has been issued
Biden's term ends without that person receiving a pardon
If a pardon is offered but the individual's acceptance/rejection is unclear (after intense research and examination by myself) the market for that person will resolve N/A
@MaybeNotDepends So this should be trading slightly below the odds of Biden granting pardons for each individual as it also includes the probability that he'd grant a pardon that someone doesn't "accept".
(I think Biden said he won't do this, but you never know).
@MaybeNotDepends My other question isn't about the rules and the resolution of this market - I'm more curious about the process of pardons. Do people have to accept pardons for them to happen (legally)?
@MaybeNotDepends Gemini AI says:
"A presidential pardon in the United States is not something that can be refused.
Automatic Effect: Once a president issues a pardon, it automatically takes effect.
Legal Forgivenesss: The pardon grants legal forgiveness for the specified offense(s).
Key Points:
Acceptance Not Required: The individual does not need to formally "accept" the pardon for it to be valid.
Restoration of Rights: A pardon typically restores certain civil rights, such as the right to vote, but the specific effects can vary."
@MaybeNotDepends For a pardon to take effect that person must enter the pardon into evidence before the court that has their case. Burdick v. United States, 236 U.S. 79 (1915). Commutations on the other hand likely cannot be refused. Biddle v. Perovich, 274 U.S. 480 (1927)
@MaybeNotDepends two of the death row inmates who had their sentences commuted are trying to fight their mandatory acceptance of their commutations so I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/two-prisoners-cant-legally-object-bidens-death-row-commutations-doj-ar-rcna186280. Additionally, a pardon can have conditions, and it's possible that acceptance of a pardon carries an imputation of guilt.
@traders please note this market refers to pardons and not communications.
Please reply to this, if you have any questions or would like to dispute this rule.
@traders Please note the additional clarifications to the rules:
Given the unique nature of preemptive pardons (that is pardons where the person has not yet been accused of a crime) in that recipients of such pardons cannot publicly accept the pardon by entering it into evidence, it will be assumed that the recipient of a preemptive pardon will accept it, absent evidence to the contrary.
Please reply to this comment if you have any questions or would like to dispute this new rule.
@FrederickNorris huh, I'd tried to find the president's brother before I made my answer and couldn't. Didn't realize we were so informal with ole' Jimmy Bides. xD