Will I consider myself “doom-pilled” by EOY 2024? | Manifold

Will I consider myself “doom-pilled” by EOY 2024?

Basic

10

Ṁ115

Dec 31

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://manifold.markets/Alana/will-i-consider-myself-doompilled-b?r=QWxhbmE

Last market was pretty good, let’s try again!

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Change my view

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bought Ṁ20 NO

@Alana You may enjoy this 30-minute video.

https://youtu.be/0pgEMWy70Qk?si=tpKE4GNIhEn9IaQi

Should a specific p(doom) qualify as doom-pilled? If so, what should that p(doom) be? 70%?

After looking more carefully into WTSG, I now feel quite a bit less optimistic about it than I did initially. It still seems like an exciting empirical direction of inquiry, however.

bought Ṁ1 NO at 58%

bought Ṁ3 YES

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