US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
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Ṁ20
2026
49%
chance

Market resolves YES if credible government agencies, security firms, or major news outlets report that US export restrictions contributed to documented cases of large-scale AI chip theft, on scale over $2M, whether stolen during delivery or from datacenters. (Theft implies that chip senders/owners must be against it.)

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The idea is that restrictions may backfire in a whole lot of ways.

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