Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
➕
Plus
601
Ṁ820k
Aug 7
50%
Sam Dalrymple
10%
Sam Kriss
76%
Medical-bill bankruptcy
17%
The New York Times, as of 7/30/2025
50%
Opinion columnists
59%
Lard
39%
Canola oil
35%
Sesame oil
43%
Olive oil
48%
Having other countries and/or people pay for your security
15%
Being poor while paying massive taxes towards "free" healthcare
81%
Wild-caught diseases
76%
Wild-caught bacon
68%
Wild-caught salmon
50%
The Sinclair method
28%
Moving in together after the second date
50%
Botox raven cosplay
56%
One night stands
56%
drone shows
65%
Bedouin people

Each answer contains a question: Do you think the person/character/concept is more Right-Wing (YES) or more Left-Wing (NO)? Bet YES, or NO, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

Heavily inspired from @Joshua's excellent market,

/Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr

You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get mana off of their transaction fees (edit may 29: currently not true, but I believe it is being implemented currently).

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.


As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are Right-Wing, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Left-Wing. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.

The market will close every every week; See the close date to know on what day. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES.

If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO.

If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.

The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running.

It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted.

Some guidlines:

  • I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

See:

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Options will only be resolved if they have at least 10 traders total and there is a significant difference in yes/no traders. This will be tested for a few weeks.

  • Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Options that are considered "draws" (i.e., have very close vote counts) may be resolved to 50% instead of being left unresolved.

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@skibidist depends if the country is Israel or not.

@skibidist depends if you are Israel or not.

@KarlK this is a very lesbian trope

Why did it close

@realDonaldTrump closes every week, i will resolve open options and reopen

reposted

.

filled a Ṁ10 YES at 67% order

@ChrisMillsc5f7 Yes, absolutely. They own The Epoch Times, one of the most right-wing news publications out there with what might possibly be the worst crossword of ANY publication I've ever seen

Implying there's no daylight between the policies and attitudes of Israel and Iran is wild

@Kraalnaxx indeed. And implying that Iran is to the left of Israel is even wilder. And yet apparently "siding with the Iranian regime" is left wing

@Fion you have to be a raging idiot to think the Iranian regime is left wing

@Lorelai agreed, and yet 8 traders voted that siding with the Iranian regime was left wing, with me as the sole dissenter

Edit: I might have come across a bit defensively here. I think I misinterpreted the word "you" as the direct version, rather than like "one", which maybe is how you meant it

@Fion yes, this was not aimed at you personally, but those 8 traders!

@Bayesian resolve remaining options?

@Qoiuoiuoiu done. most of these are forever draws though. I could resolve them 50/50...

sold Ṁ3 YES

@Bayesian Fine by me tbh. I just had a bunch of mana tied up in the last couple of options although now that you've reopened, I sold off most of them

bought Ṁ20 NO

why is Michigan so high?

sold Ṁ11 YES

@jcb 2024 presidential election result?

@TheAllMemeingEye huh, I guess.

governor: D

US senators: 2 D

US reps: 7 R, 6 D

state senators: 18 R, 20 D

state reps: 58 R, 52 D

Yes traders, why? I thought he was famous for NOT being left or right leaning

@Odoacre not a YES trader, but he was from the past. A centrist from hundreds of years ago will be pretty right wing by the standards of today on many issues

@Fion I think Washington could probably be classified as a classical libertarian which means he is a mix of both contemporary left and right.

bought Ṁ30 YES

The South African snack? Come on.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Reality obviously conservative (see: energy, momentum, angular momentum)

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