Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about how a settlement would be treated, the creator clarified that the intent is to mirror whatever Sentinel was predicting.
Update 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that a clarification on the resolution criteria is due. To resolve ambiguity around outcomes like a settlement, the creator will seek to determine what Sentinel (the source this market is mirroring) intended. If necessary, the creator will ask Sentinel directly on Twitter for this clarification.
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3.00All the markets on this:
- https://manifold.markets/GauravYadav/will-anthropic-lose-the-authors-cop
- https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/the-potentially-businessending-anth
- https://manifold.markets/CharlesFoster/will-anthropic-be-ordered-to-pay-1b
- https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-anthropic-go-bankrupt-or-be-di
@Mactuary The intent is to mirror whatever Sentinel was predicting, I don’t know what would seem most reasonable, hmmmmm
@Bayesian I feel like a settlement here is as likely as not, especially if there's the potential for a company ending award. I think using the value of the settlement is closest to "correct", though on a technicality you might call that not going through a jury trial.
As one piece of weak evidence, the tobacco case, referenced in a retweet, was settled.