What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?
35
Ṁ6404
Dec 31
88%
At least 120B Parameters
95%
At least 20B Parameters
3%
released in September, October, November, or December 2025
97%
released in the month of August 2025
0.4%
released in the month of July 2025
1%
released in the month of June 2025
86%
Is a reasoning model
6%
Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)
41%
Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)
80%
Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3
8%
my friend Andromeda (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture
80%
An instruct model is made accessible
7%
A base model is made accessible
34%
The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site
25%
Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai
14%
At least 300B parameters
94%
At least 70B parameters
90%
At least 30B parameters
79%
better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)
88%
Uses Mixture of Experts

Context:

Feel free to add your own answers. If an answer is unclear you are welcome to ask for clarification from both me and the person who submitted the answer.

#AI
#OpenAI
#Technical AI Timelines
#LLMs
#AI Impacts
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Ṁ1,000
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"reasoning model" will be judged with reference to OpenAI documentation.

bought Ṁ10 YES

What’s the difference between image/language and vision/language?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@KJW_01294 I think image/language generates images whereas vision/language only takes them as input

I've chosen to bet on the market that references me, but assert that I will be truthful in my evaluation of it. To help others, I would have said no to Gemma 2/3, yes to PaliGemma, yes to DeepSeek-MoE, but no to DeepSeek V3 and DeepSeek R1

bought Ṁ10 YES

"parameters" means total parameters?

bought Ṁ30 NO

@JoshYou correct

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