is this just the next model that is released?

@realDonaldTrump no, the next major model that is widely considered a successor to o3

@Bayesian what is widely considered?

@realDonaldTrump roughly "something people generally think of as"

@Bayesian This is the model selector for ChatGPT Pro Plan

Let's say GPT-5 was added and became the first listed model and 4o moved down to "more models" or somewhere lower down the list but o3 stayed as #2 the whole time

What would this resolve to?

I would support a close when gpt-5 is released and poll for resolution

@realDonaldTrump Depends what it is widely considered to be, I don’t think its position in the model selector is going to affect resolution much though

@Bayesian can it be closed and then a poll?

@realDonaldTrump it could be, but likely won't be

do you think ChatGPT agent counts? It seems like a smarter model overall than o3, and not just at computer use, though it's not a clear Pareto improvement. Unlike o3 it's not available as a chat/general model but that's immaterial per your criteria.

system card here: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/6bcccca6-3b64-43cb-a66e-4647073142d7/chatgpt_agent_system_card_launch.pdf

@JoshYou Good question, I think it doesn't count

@JoshYou It's not a model. It is a tool used with all other models.

@realDonaldTrump wrong

@Bayesian Send statement that says not model

@Bayesian See I can have agent enabled with 4o or o3

@Bayesian

From the legend itself

the models do not reliably know who they are or what tools they are using, so this is not trustworthy

@realDonaldTrump See the system card https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/839e66fc-602c-48bf-81d3-b21eacc3459d/chatgpt_agent_system_card.pdf

or o3 + search's analysis of the situation
https://chatgpt.com/s/t_688d3540c67c819187ac99c1e47ac844

it's an o3 fine-tune. so a different model, but only somewhat

am I missing something? if GPT-5 comes out before o4, is there any reason it wouldn't be the successor to o3? if it's not a reasoning model or does worse than o3 on benchmarks? (both seem very unlikely)

@JoshYou I guess this is downstream of the fact that I don't believe there will be a a model called o4, because if GPT-5 is a superior reasoning model to o3 then what would o4 be?

Does o4 option also apply to o4-mini?

i don't think o4-mini counts as a successor to o3 since it seems worse on most benchmarks but o4-mini kinda implies the existence of o4 so i am considering resolving early, what do ppl think

@Bayesian I’d say to give it time, since OAI might call GPT-5 their next-gen reasoner in lieu of a new reasoner in the o series

@Bayesian I understood "successor" as "the next release that Open AI tells people to use". So this would only count if o4 is actually released.

But I agree it's ambiguous...

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I would lean toward release of the successor not being required, like if they show benchmark results for o4 in a similar way that they did for o3 right before january when this market was created, that would make it a successor

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I would lean toward release of the successor not being required, like if they show benchmark results for o4 in a similar way that they did for o3 right before january when this market was created, that would make it a successor