The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of Gaza hitherto outside its domain, before 2026.
Resolves NO on December 31st, 2025 otherwise.
See also:
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-gaza-by (This market)
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-the-wes
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-part-of-palestine
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-gaza-in
Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that while an act of proclaiming sovereignty analogous to the East Jerusalem annexation would count for a YES resolution, this is not the only scenario. Other ways Israel might proclaim sovereignty over a part of Gaza, even if disanalogous to the East Jerusalem annexation, could also be sufficient to resolve the market YES.
1,000
3.00@nathanwei That would count yes. maybe they could proclaim sovereignty over some part of gaza in a way disanalogous to the east jerusalem annexation though, I wouldn't wanna say only something like this would be sufficient for resolving the market