Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between July 12, 2025, and December 31, 2025, any top official within the Trump administration resigns, is dismissed, or is reassigned due to issues directly related to the closure of the investigation into the Jeffrey Epstein case.
A "top official" is defined as a Cabinet member, Deputy Secretary, or equivalent high-ranking position. Public statements, credible news reports, or official records indicating that the departure was linked to the Epstein case will serve as evidence for resolution, even if the official reason contradicts it. If no such departures occur within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
In July 2025, internal conflicts within the Trump administration have emerged concerning the Epstein case. FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino clashed with Attorney General Pam Bondi over the handling of Epstein-related files, leading to speculation about potential resignations. (axios.com)
Considerations
The Epstein case has been a recurring source of controversy, affecting multiple administrations and officials over the years.
Internal disagreements within the administration regarding the handling of Epstein-related matters may influence the stability of current officials' positions.
Public and media scrutiny can escalate internal conflicts, potentially leading to resignations or reassignments.
Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino qualifies as a 'top official' for the purposes of resolution.
1,000
3.00@Mochi "resigns, is dismissed, or is reassigned due to issues directly related to the closure of the investigation into the Jeffrey Epstein case" is a very high bar to prove. Particularly, the closing of the investigation part.
@prismatic generally I agree it’s difficult to prove if the resignation is directly related to the investigation. But in this case the named official is mentioned in the resolution criteria as a potential candidate to resign due to Epstein case and this person ends up resigning. Moreover, many news reports mention Dan’s frustration towards Epstein case https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna249789
Personally I think the frustration towards the Epstein case was part of the reason for his resignation, whether the speculation is sufficient to resolve YES to this question is up to the creator.