@traders @EvanDaniel has endeavored to make this market more accurate by arbitraging it against other similar markets. But since binary markets are generally easier to work with under the hood, he's been using https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-be-nominated-for-pres and https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi

Would anyone mind if I switch the underlying markets for the latter two questions to be based on these? It seems like it would be beneficial from the standpoint of liquidity in this market and traders here having more options if Evan is incentivized to keep up the arbitrage by making this risk-free as possible.

@BoltonBailey Other risk reduction options include asking @LarsDoucet and @ManifoldPolitics if there's a way we can guarantee those markets resolve consistently with each other.

At the moment I'm not terribly picky about this, but risk reduction for arb work is appreciated!

We could also do something along the lines of /EvanDaniel/2026-midterms-election-weirdness but getting it to trade close enough to 0% to make the arb hedging work sounds hard to do naturally, and captial-inefficient to force.

@EvanDaniel LarsDoucet seems pretty inactive, so it seems likely to me that both will be resolved by manifold staff/mods anyway, which makes it even less likely that there will be discrepancy.

Since I haven't heard any objections, I'm going to update, if nothing else so that the percentages will be visible in the criteria.