Let's predict next year's draft order!
The order here is that determined on the field; trades, forfeits and other shenanigans are ignored. So, if we were predicting the 2024 order, the Panthers would be number 1, even though in the actual draft the Bears got that pick via trade.
The team owning the #1 pick will resolve NO; the winner of Super Bowl LIX, who will have #32, will resolve YES. All other teams will resolve to the following percentages, calculated by percentage(pick) = round((pick - 1) * 100 / 31)
:
#2 pick: 3%
#3 pick: 6%
#4 pick: 10%
#5 pick: 13%
#6 pick: 16%
#7 pick: 19%
#8 pick: 23%
#9 pick: 26%
#10 pick: 29%
#11 pick: 32%
#12 pick: 35%
#13 pick: 39%
#14 pick: 42%
#15 pick: 45%
#16 pick: 48%
#17 pick: 52%
#18 pick: 55%
#19 pick: 58%
#20 pick: 61%
#21 pick: 65%
#22 pick: 68%
#23 pick: 71%
#24 pick: 74%
#25 pick: 77%
#26 pick: 81%
#2 7pick: 84%
#28 pick: 87%
#29 pick: 90%
#30 pick: 94%
#31 pick: 97%
I'll aim to resolve each pick as it becomes certain (e.g. the Panthers clinched the #1 pick in 2024 on New Year's Eve with their 14th loss of the season, so that's when I'd have resolved that question).
As per [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/43172295/2025-nfl-draft-order-top-32-picks-first-round), picks 19-21 go to the Bucs, Broncos and Steelers in that order. Tonight's Vikings-Rams game defines picks 22-24.
@BrunoParga hm they all three have an equal SOS right now. I thought the rest of the games could still change it.
@Riley12 to be honest, I don't have it very clear how these ties are broken. I'm relying on ESPN knowing what they're talking about 😅 I do suspect SOS only counts the regular season, though.
@BrunoParga I guess it's this "Meanwhile, the Buccaneers, Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers all had identical 10-7 records and SOS marks of .502. In such a situation with three-or-more clubs from different conferences remain tied, the first step is to eliminate all but one team from each conference. By that procedure, the Steelers are eliminated and get the 21st pick but they beat Denver in Week Two. After that, the Buccaneers and Broncos go into a two-team tiebreaker and that hinges on Denver's win in Tampa in Week Three. That puts Denver 20th and the Buccaneers 19th." so weird