I will periodically and informally survey my colleagues and friends who work at investment banks to determine whether they are being impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI.
I will use my subjective judgment in determining whether to call the resolution, but as a rule of thumb if I have seen 5+ instances of impactful, custom software tools being used that are likely to have been made possible due to AI, I will likely resolve the market.
Examples of custom software tools might include bespoke CRM platforms, custom transaction management tools, or targeted due diligence assistance capabilities. This list is meant to be illustrative and not exhaustive.
I may bet in this market.
I think investment banks will definitely feel some impact, since AI makes it easier for smaller firms and even startups to build custom tools quickly. But banks still have the scale, trust, and compliance edge. That said, with white-label banking platforms like Kindgeek https://kindgeek.com/core_payment_platform , it’s becoming way easier for non-banks to offer competitive financial products, which could really shake things up.