Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
Plus
55
Ṁ10kDec 31
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
25% chance
Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
22% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025? (tentative criteria)
13% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
35% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
29% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
40% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
50% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
19% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
21% chance