Resolution criteria
I preordered the paperback version of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares on amazon.de. This market will resolve to "Yes" if I receive the book on or before its official release date of September 16, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The outcome is dependent on the entire delivery chain (publisher, seller, courier). The market will resolve to Yes even if home delivery fails, as long as the creator is able to retrieve the book from a pickup point on September 16, 2025.
1,000
3.00Small update:
On the Amazon homepage the status has changed to: "delivered", but that is not true. I have neither had the courier ring the bell nor did they put the book in my mailbox. I will check the mailbox again later, maybe they changed the status before even trying to deliver. Who knows?
I can't even see a way to report this abysmal failure to Amazon. Looks like for them this topic is concluded. So, if the book isn't in the mailbox later, I will try to somehow find a way to contact Amazon support. For now this looks really bad
@CommanderKeen ok,i did some wild clicking around on the homepage, it looks like i misunderstood the current status message "Bestellung erhalten". I interpreted that as me having received the order, but it actually means that Amazon has received the order and nothing else. It looks like I will get no information on where the package currently is, but it could still be discovered today!
I preordered one paperback and two hardcovers and the paperback appeared at my doorstep today.
@CommanderKeen Are you saying I should buy Yes, quickly read it and immediatelly send it over to you? I'm afraid the market isn't subsidized enough for that trickery 😜
(Retracted)
@WilliamGunn It's about the whole chain, the end result. I have never had something stolen but I have had couriers make mistakes and others just don't ring. Of course, in the unlikely case that the publisher messes up, this would also resolve to no. If, on the other hand, the courier does not ring but I am able to get the book from some pickup point in the evening, this would resolve to yes.
@CommanderKeen If there are issues with the delivery, how much effort do you expect to put into fixing them promptly (such as by going to a pickup point that evening)?
@EvanDaniel As I have said, I would do that. I am not sure what else I could possibly do on that same day?