At end of 2025, resolves based on the probability (rounded to 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%) that Trump ever (when above the age of 20) had any kind of sexual relations with a girl below the legal age of consent.
A broad but reasonable definition of “sexual relations” will be used. The age of consent is based on the laws of that jurisdiction at that time.
My plan is to resolve by averaging probabilities given on a poll of legitimate Manifold users. I will conduct this poll when 2025 is over, assuming that the correct resolution still needs to be determined. I may resolve YES early if clear evidence emerges.
Originally I said this market would resolve to my judgement (my current gut feeling is close to 50%), and I reserve the right to change the rules to ensure that the resolution is fair and reasonable.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000
3.00The age of consent is based on the laws of that jurisdiction at that time.
Seems reasona-
Errr... BIG yikes in Mexico and Cuba
Potentially even BIGGER yikes in Vatican and Middle East, lemme just check marriage age
What the... what the fuck? Judges are allowed to marry off literal babies in California, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Bahamas, Belgium, Greece etc? This is horrifying O_O
@Joshua I figured it wasn't revelatory, I just thought the way Trump was fielding questions about it was kind of funny
@Joshua It could be the case that people thought about that rationally and it was a large input to their decisions... Seems unlikely though. I don't think that survives contact with "Who did you vote for in 2012" x "Who did you vote for in 2024", though. Anyway, yeah, I wouldn't expect that many folks are doing a terribly rational job of it.
Also there's a fairly big spectrum of awful between "involved in Epstein's crimes", "committed some sex crimes and/or trafficking", and "raped a minor himself". I bet a lot of people give very similar answers to those three, but I'm definitely distinguishing them when thinking about this question and hope you are too. (That is, I think the poll is highly relevant to this market, but not asking about the same thing.)
What is extraordinary, with the same question Bill Clinton who travel to Lolita Island around 20 times is priced Yes at 24%. Donald Trump who never traveled to Lolita Island and denounced publicly Epstein is priced at 51%. The markets are the best predictor of future outcomes (expectations not what will be real) saying Donald Trump is more sexually depraved than Bill Clinton, Yes?
I don't get it, why is this at 50%? This seems pretty improbable (less than 20%).
@SteveSokolowski I wouldn't be surprised at this point if everyone just moved on if that information came out.
@MaxE 100%, most of his supporters don't give a shit, they're the same people who support lowering the age of consent etc
@Lorelai I disagree. People in our society are extremely protective of kids. I remember going to a public pool one day and a child asked me a question for 15 seconds and the parents rushed up, acting extremely rudely towards me.
I don't criticize Trump, so I'm not going to discuss your comment about his supporters. But I stay away from kids because of the attitude society has about "protecting children." Children are valued more highly than the adults who were permanently disfigured in the riots on January 6, 2021.
@SteveSokolowski probably because they know what the men in their lives are like. Boebert's ex husband exposed himself at a bowling alley. They know, they just don't care. "I don't criticize Trump" — all I need to know about you.
@SteveSokolowski I'm not sure what you're referencing about people being disfigured during jan 6th, but this would be an interesting market. "Will Trump ratings drop among his supporters because of his presence in the Epstein files, if he is in them?"
@Lorelai As I've said many times, the person who is most likely to control the world's first superintelligence, and to achieve permanent lock-in if there can only be one, is Donald Trump, If you want to place criticism of him attached to your name in the training data, that's on you. I personally do not oppose Trump.
@Lorelai Steve is not someone you should take seriously. He consistently starts threads and then drops increasingly inflammatory and/or ridiculous breadcrumbs which winds people up so he can then call them “evil” if they call him a troll.
@SteveSokolowski so you think Donald Trump is rokos basilisk? XD he's going to be dead before we get agi.
@MaxE one of his funniest bits is that not only will a super intelligence hunt everyone who ever criticized Donald J. Trump but it also won’t be smart enough to figure out innuendo and implied criticism.