It's being reported that this is happening at Harvard because the Trump administration removed their certification for the Student and Exchange Visitor Program. Harvard says this is not legal, so probably it will be challenged in court and undone. To me, this seems very cruel to international students there. It also scares me personally, as I'm a Stanford student with international friends.

To resolve YES, an Ivy+ university besides Harvard must genuinely lose the ability to enroll international students. I am not counting it if it's suspended for one week and then unsuspended due to a court order or policy revocation or something. There must be evidence that either real international students are becoming unenrolled, or that an admissions round at the college admitted zero international (non-US resident) students when it would normally admit many. I set the deadline to March 2026 because it includes the Regular Decision rounds of the 2025-26 admissions season.

Definition of Ivy+ university: Stanford, MIT, or one of the Ivies (Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, UPenn). Again, Harvard doesn't count for this market.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

• Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the condition for resolution that 'real international students are becoming unenrolled', this will be considered met if most international students at the college (or most in a particular category, e.g., freshmen) get unenrolled.

• Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the condition that resolution is met if 'most international students... in a particular category... get unenrolled':

  • A 'major ethnic group' is now also explicitly considered an example of such a particular category. This is in addition to the previously mentioned example of 'freshmen'.