Trump tried to win over the crowd by pledging to include a Libertarian in his Cabinet, but many in the crowd hissed in disbelief.
Resolves YES if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates a Libertarian to any Cabinet-level position (even if the Senate rejects them). To count, they must be a currently registered Libertarian (if they are from a state with party registration) or else a currently self-identified Libertarian. Resolves NO if he leaves office without doing so.
If Trump loses the election, resolves PROB to the average of the market probability in the week before Election Day. (Hopefully this should be fairly resistant to manipulation.)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Update 2025-10-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
The market only ends when Trump leaves office.
1,000
3.00Chair of LP says RFK is a libertarian party member https://x.com/angela4LNCChair/status/1857177572582322564?t=_CM8Nxh82Rv0ill1Tu-S7Q&s=19
So RFK Jr claims he resides in new york, new york disagrees, but rfk still voted there (maybe illegally). https://vote.nyc/page/party-affiliation says that there are four possibly party affiliations in new york state and none of them are the libertain party. IDK of any source on him saying that he is a libertarian but I didn't really search for one very hard and hold a no stake.
(He did get nominated in their primary, but so did Trump. Unlike trump he filed paperwork about this and maybe gave a speech too.)
@Fay42 Second question is easy - the market only ends when trump leaves office.
First question is pretty thorny. I didn’t realize you could have a state with party registration but where you couldn’t register as a libertarian. Wikipedia seems to think RFK Jr is an independent, and so I’m inclined not to count him. But I haven’t examined the evidence on the issue
@Fay42 I suspect what's happening is that you can join the LP national organization with a monthly, yearly, or lifetime membership (https://lp.org/join/). But that's separate from being registered to a specific party in a given state. But it is what the Chair of the LP would care about in terms of being a party member, since that's how they count it.
I’m changing the exact criteria around party registration to match with my other market. Happy to provide mana for anyone who feels misled by this.