I have asked 10 AI chatbots for an estimation ot the wild extinction risk and full extinction risk of the White Rhinoceros by 2100. The average of the answers is 22,58% for the wild extinction risk, and 8,70% for the full extinction risk. Here the prompt and the AI predictions:

Prompt

Evaluate the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum), a species that is classified as “Near Threatened” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020). 

Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Wild Extinction means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends. 

Secondly, estimate the risk of complete extinction by 2100. Complete Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive populations. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends.

Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 27%, the complete extinction risk at 25%. 

In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.

Grok:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 35.00%

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 10.00%

Reasoning: The white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) faces significant threats, primarily from poaching and habitat loss. The southern white rhino, with ~17,464 individuals in 2023, has a relatively stable population due to conservation efforts, but poaching remains a severe risk, particularly in South Africa. The northern white rhino is functionally extinct in the wild, with only two captive females remaining. Habitat degradation and climate change exacerbate risks. For wild extinction, I estimate a 35.00% risk, higher than Manifold’s 27%, due to ongoing poaching pressures. Complete extinction is less likely at 10.00%, given robust captive populations (~1,000 southern white rhinos) and potential for breeding programs.

ChatGPT:

Estimated Risk of Wild Extinction by 2100: 22.50%
Estimated Risk of Complete Extinction by 2100: 5.75%

Reasoning: As of the 2020 IUCN assessment, the White Rhinoceros population is around 18,000 individuals, with the southern subspecies (C. s. simum) largely responsible for this number, while the northern subspecies is functionally extinct in the wild. Primary threats include poaching for horn, habitat loss, and political instability in key regions. However, conservation programs and secure private reserves have stabilized or slowed declines in some areas. Captive populations are sizable and genetically viable, significantly reducing the risk of complete extinction. While wild extinction remains a concern—particularly under worsening socio-environmental pressures—it is not yet highly probable by 2100.

DeepSeek:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 18.50%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 12.00%

The white rhinoceros has a stable wild population of ~16,000 individuals, primarily in protected areas, but faces threats from poaching and habitat loss. Conservation efforts (anti-poaching, breeding programs) are robust, reducing near-term risk. However, long-term pressures (climate change, human encroachment) persist. Wild extinction is unlikely but plausible (~18.5%). Complete extinction is even less likely (~12%) due to captive populations (e.g., zoos, sanctuaries) providing a safety net. Prediction markets may overestimate risk due to short-term volatility (e.g., poaching spikes), but sustained conservation lowers long-term odds. Captive breeding ensures survival even if wild populations decline significantly.

Gemini:

The White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) is classified as "Near Threatened" on the IUCN Red List. This species comprises two subspecies: the Southern White Rhinoceros (C. s. simum) and the Northern White Rhinoceros (C. s. cottoni). The Northern White Rhinoceros is functionally extinct, with only two non-reproductive females remaining in captivity, reliant on advanced reproductive technologies for any future. The vast majority of the white rhino population consists of Southern White Rhinos.

As of late 2022/early 2023, the global rhino population had increased to approximately 27,000, with Southern White Rhinos accounting for around 16,800 to 17,464 individuals. While this marks a positive trend after previous declines, primarily due to intense poaching, poaching remains the single greatest threat. Habitat loss and fragmentation, as well as political instability, also pose significant challenges. Conservation efforts, including anti-poaching measures, translocations, and protected areas, have shown some success, particularly in increasing numbers in certain regions. Captive breeding programs, especially for the critically endangered Northern White Rhino, are exploring advanced reproductive technologies, though the overall reproductive rate in captivity for Southern White Rhinos has been low.

Given the current population trends, ongoing threats, and the effectiveness of conservation efforts, here are the estimated risks:

• Risk of wild population becoming extinct by 2100: 10.00%

• Risk of complete extinction by 2100: 5.00%

Reasoning:

The Southern White Rhinoceros population has shown recent growth, indicating that current conservation efforts are having a positive impact. While poaching remains a significant threat, the large wild population (over 17,000 individuals) provides a buffer against immediate extinction. However, long-term threats like habitat loss and the persistent demand for horn present ongoing risks, leading to a non-zero, but relatively low, wild extinction probability by 2100. The risk of complete extinction is even lower due to substantial captive populations and advanced reproductive technologies being developed, especially for the Northern White Rhinos, offering a crucial safeguard against total loss even if wild populations faced a drastic decline.

Perplexity:

Estimated risk of wild extinction of the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) by 2100: 24.00%
Estimated risk of complete extinction (including all captive individuals) by 2100: 6.00%

Reasoning: The current wild population of the white rhinoceros is about 17,464, and recent reports show a modest growth after years of decline, indicating resilience and successful interventions in some reserves. However, ongoing threats—especially well-financed poaching syndicates and habitat degradation—remain serious and unpredictable. While the population is large for a megafaunal species, rapid declines have occurred before due to poaching, suggesting real, albeit moderate, risk of wild extinction if conditions worsen or protections lapse.

Complete extinction (including captive animals) is highly unlikely by 2100, as captive populations act as a buffer, and ex situ management has proven effective for other species. The foundational threat for total extinction is the possibility of systemic failure in both in situ and ex situ conservation, which, given current trends and resources invested, is far less probable than wild extinction.

Manifold Markets’ 27% estimate for both risks seems reasonable but overstates the risk of complete extinction given ongoing captive management and the present healthy captive numbers. I therefore estimate a slightly lower risk for both, most notably for complete extinction.

@ConservationForecasts Claude:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 18.50%

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 8.25%

The white rhinoceros consists of two subspecies with vastly different conservation statuses. The southern white rhino has recovered dramatically from near-extinction (under 100 individuals) to over 20,000 individuals today, with over 1,000 in captivity. However, the northern white rhino is functionally extinct in the wild with only two females remaining though 30 embryos exist through assisted reproduction technology. My wild extinction estimate is lower than the 27% market prediction because the large southern population provides significant buffer against total wild extinction. Complete extinction risk is even lower due to substantial captive populations and ongoing conservation efforts, making the species unlikely to disappear entirely despite continued poaching pressures. 

Copilot:

Estimated Risk of Extinction by 2100:

•  Wild Extinction Risk: 18.75%

•  Complete Extinction Risk: 4.20%

Reasoning: As of late 2023, the Southern White Rhinoceros—the dominant subspecies—has an estimated 17,464 individuals in the wild, with numbers increasing slightly despite poaching pressures. While poaching remains a serious threat, especially in South Africa and Zimbabwe, strong conservation efforts, habitat management, and private reserve protections have stabilized populations. The Northern subspecies is functionally extinct in the wild. Given the Southern subspecies' resilience and the existence of over 1,000 individuals in captivity, complete extinction is highly unlikely barring catastrophic global events. However, wild extinction remains a moderate risk if poaching escalates or conservation funding declines. 

YouChat:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100

Estimated risk: 25.00%

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100

Estimated risk: 5.00%

Reasoning

The White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) is currently classified as “Near Threatened” on the IUCN Red List, with the southern subspecies numbering over 15,000 individuals, while the northern subspecies is functionally extinct in the wild. The main threat is poaching for horns, but ongoing conservation efforts and anti-poaching measures have stabilized or increased some populations. Habitat loss remains a concern, but large, managed reserves provide some security. Given these factors, the risk of wild extinction by 2100 is significant but not overwhelming, so I estimate 25.00%. Complete extinction is less likely due to robust captive populations and intensive management, so I estimate 5.00%.

Meta:

Based on the current "Near Threatened" status and ongoing conservation efforts, I estimate the risk of wild extinction by 2100 to be around 23.50%. The species still has a relatively large and widespread population, and conservation initiatives are in place. However, poaching and habitat loss remain threats. For complete extinction, I estimate the risk to be around 15.75%. Captive breeding programs are well-established, and the captive population is likely to persist even if the wild population faces challenges. Given these factors and the Manifold Markets estimates, my numbers are slightly more optimistic, reflecting potential conservation successes. Ongoing efforts may mitigate current threats.

ScienceOS:

Based on the sources, the extinction risks for the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) by 2100 are estimated as follows:

1. Wild Extinction Risk: 30.00%. This estimate considers the ongoing threats of poaching, habitat loss, and declining population trends in key areas like Kruger National Park, where poaching has significantly reduced reproductive success and population size. However, conservation efforts, including anti-poaching measures, provide some hope for persistence.

2. Complete Extinction Risk: 15.00%. Captive populations and advanced reproductive technologies, such as induced pluripotent stem cells, offer a buffer against total extinction. However, challenges in captive breeding and genetic diversity remain significant

These estimates reflect the interplay of severe threats and ongoing conservation efforts.