Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's comment, in response to a query about constitutional eligibility, suggests that the market considers the possibility of changes to constitutional eligibility for Elon Musk. This implies that current ineligibility does not automatically preclude a YES resolution if legal frameworks (e.g., via a constitutional amendment) were to change to permit him to run and he subsequently does so.
Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specifies that the market tracks any serious candidacy effort, regardless of whether a constitutional amendment succeeds.
YES if Elon Musk either:
Is officially recognized as a candidate by filing FEC Form 2, OR
Appears on at least one state’s official presidential ballot by Election Day 2028.
NO otherwise. This includes scenarios where he only hints at running but never files, or if paperwork is rejected/withdrawn before ballots are printed.
1,000
3.00Amendment XXVIII
Presidential Eligibility Modernization Act
Section 1. The first sentence of Article II, Section 1, Clause 5 of the Constitution of the United States is hereby amended to read:
“No person except a citizen of the United States who has been a citizen for at least twenty years shall be eligible to the office of President or Vice President; neither shall any person be eligible who shall not have attained the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States.”
Section 2. This amendment shall not be construed to disqualify any individual solely on the basis of foreign birth, provided that they have been a naturalized citizen of the United States for at least twenty years prior to assuming office.
Section 3. Congress shall have the power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
@DanielKilian how will this resolve if he attempts to run despite being constitutionally ineligible? (i.e. no amendment passes but he runs anyways)
@Racheld7njf My intent is to track any serious candidacy effort, regardless of whether a constitutional amendment succeeds.
YES if Elon Musk is officially recognized as a candidate by filing FEC Form 2 or appearing on at least one state’s official presidential ballot by Election Day 2028.
NO otherwise (including if he only hints at running but never files, or if paperwork is rejected/withdrawn before ballots are printed).
Let me know what you think.