This market predicts whether Eliezer Yudkowsky will wear a fedora, trilby, or similar hat during any in-person appearances (such as podcasts, interviews, or talks) promoting his book "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" before 2026. Resolution will be based on credible photographic or video evidence from these events.
Resolution condition: Only triggers if Eliezer appears in at least one public-facing media event (e.g. podcast, interview, TED-style talk, etc.) explicitly promoting If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies.
Then: resolves YES if he is visibly wearing the fedora or similar hat in any of those appearances; NO if he appears but is hatless or wearing one that isn’t one of THOSE hats; N/A if he doesn’t do any promotion at all on camera by the end of the year.
I will apply my discretion to specific hats to determine if they trigger the stereotype. If there is contention about whether the hat counts, we can have a poll about it.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that a flat cap does not satisfy the criteria for a YES resolution. A qualifying hat requires a brim (e.g., a fedora or trilby).
1,000
3.00Breaking hat news: Eliezer makes a media appearance in a flat cap. Not a fedora. Noted for the record. Market implications uncertain. We remain alert.
@Metastable No. That was a joke. It’s less idiosyncratic of a hat. This requires a brim. Fedora, trilby, the like.