What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected
This market only resolves 1 answer
Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First
To Meet Re-Election:
Biden must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.
Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.
To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:
Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine
Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days
Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities
Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.
MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET
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Update 2025-14-01 (PST): - First Event Determination: To qualify as the first event, a bilateral ceasefire must last at least 10 calendar days. This duration must be fulfilled for the ceasefire to be considered as occurring first. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - First Event Determination: If a bilateral ceasefire overlaps with Trump's inauguration, the ceasefire must continue for at least 10 calendar days, and Trump's inauguration must be delayed to a date after the 10-day ceasefire to qualify it as the first event. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Ceasefire Initiation: It does not matter what phase or stage the ceasefire is in as long as it meets the description to initiate the start of the 10-day count.
Rocket Fire:
If a single rocket is fired, the 10-day counter resets.
The rocket can be from either side (Israel or Hamas) or an outside party.
Breaking the Ceasefire:
A ceasefire can be broken by either Israel, Hamas, or an outside party issuing statements that legitimately break the ceasefire.
If a non-Hamas group (e.g., PIJ) fires a rocket, it breaks the ceasefire as defined in the agreement or as deferred to statements from Israel and/or Hamas.
1,000
3.00An Israeli cabinet meeting to approve a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas was delayed Thursday morning, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the militant group of “reneging” on parts of the agreement.
Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet would not convene until Hamas accepted all elements of the deal. A Hamas official said on social media that the group is committed to the agreement announced Wednesday. Neither provided any further details.
"call to terminate ALL hostilities"?
As Defined In The Agreement
"last 10 days"
This is market specific to resolve YES, it does not matter as to what "phase" or "stage" the ceasefire is in as long is it meets the description to initiate the start of the count to 10 days.
If a single rocket is fired does the counter reset?
As Defined In The Agreement
If the rocket is from Hamas?
This market is not specific on who breaks it if it is broken. It can be by either side or an outside party if Israel and/or Hamas issue statements that legitimately break the ceasefire
What if it's from a non-Hamas group like PIJ?
As Defined In The Agreement or Deferred To Israel and/or Hamas Statements (Also See Above Statement)
(Please read the description, since this potential ceasefire may overlap awaiting Trumps Inauguration and the 10 days required for Israel/Hamas criteria, as of now the only way this resolves to Israel/Hamas would be if the ceasefire continues and Trumps inauguration is delayed to a date after day 10 of the ceasefire)
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Israel and Hamas agree to Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, source says
The Israeli government and Hamas have agreed to a deal that will pause fighting in Gaza and lead to the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, a source briefed on the talks tells CNN.
Under the deal, which is yet to be formally announced, Hamas and its allied militant groups are expected to release 33 hostages seized from Israel during the attacks of October 7, 2023.
In return, Israel will free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
The agreement would deliver the first reprieve from war for the people of Gaza in more than a year, and only the second since the Israeli bombardment began.
Once confirmed, it is expected that the deal will allow Palestinian civilians to return to northern Gaza and there would be a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the strip, where residents have long faced dire humanitarian conditions.
Hamas says ceasefire-hostage agreement with Israel is in "final stages"
From CNN's Abeer Salman
Talks with Israel to reach a ceasefire-hostage agreement in Gaza have reached their “final stages,” Hamas said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that it hoped the latest round of negotiations will conclude with “a clear and comprehensive agreement.”
Hamas also said it had informed Palestinian factions about the progress made talks and that the leaders of the factions were satisfied with the developments.
“The leadership of the movement and the various factions emphasized the continuation of communication and consultation,” Hamas said.
@EBSnyder If a ceasefire deal happens between now and Trump's inauguration, would we still have to wait 10 days to see if it lasts? Or would it count as long as it's scheduled to last at least 10 days?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I mean you can hardly call a ceasefire "lasting" based on how long it's scheduled to last.
It would count if it meets the criteria in the description.
It could still happen if something happens to trump or inauguration is pushed back or a war ends.
@EBSnyder You seem to have misunderstood his question:
How will this resolve if the ceasefire starts a day before the inauguration and ends a month after the inauguration?
It is "What Event Will Happen First" so the 10 days has to be met for it to have happened first(per the requirements in the description).
If it was based on "Which Event Was Initiated First", than it would have already resolved to Trump Re-elected.
Wars in Ukraine and Gaza: Trump said Russia’s war in Ukraine could “escalate” and that it is “much more complicated.” Trump also warned that if hostages being held in Gaza are not released by his inauguration, “all hell will break out” in the Middle East.
From CNN's Sam Fossum
Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain
(Its Not Hamas, But Shows A Ceasefire May Be Possible)
@DistinctlySkeptical Does this require inauguration? So that wouldn’t be until Jan 20, 2025
It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say
From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond
@AlphaAbulikim I sold my 11,000 position and brought it to 9%. Can't keep waiting for it to resolve, had to get my mana out.