Resolves to the rider who wins the overall general classification (Maglia Rosa) at the end of the Giro.
The 'winner' will be based on the rider awarded the trophy at the podium presentation at the conclusion of the final stage. If there is no podium presentation but there is an announcement of the winner, this resolves based on the first person announced to be the winner. Changes after the final winner is announced (e.g. late disqualification) will not change the result of this market.
1,000
3.00
@MachiNi if it's still in doubt I might extend it more...but I funded a huge amount of liquidity in this market and I'd prefer to not lose it all for no reason. Once it closes I won't reopen it
@Eliza I mean, it’s basically live trading until the end for now, not quite the suspenseful early close you’d announced. But I’m not complaining, this is fun!
Tenshino's bot doesn't believe in del Toro. @Eliza you are also trading below 60%, I think last Tuesday was probably calories, plus effects of the day after rest day. Today he was able to defend with his team (the only one with teammates at the middle of last climb), and then alone against Carapaz. Carapaz used more energy today than del Toro, so I would expect him to be able to hold tomorrow. Of course Colle delle Finestre can be chaos...
I would bet more on del Toro, but I ran out of mana.
@Eliza I may move the closing time of this market forward or backward, but once it closes I'm committing to not reopening trading just because the reopening step is so chaotic after things have changed. If the GC ends up being in serious doubt again after this market closes, there's a pretty good chance I would fund a new market anyway.
is leading with the pink Jersey, and he has a ~55% chance of winning based on historical rates.
Comparing to some traditional betting sites out there, we seem to be significantly off on Del Toro (40% here vs 60% real money) but fairly close for a lot of other contenders.
Is there a specific reason for the huge disagreement on Del Toro? Is this a situation where the books can all be really greedy with the winner and Manifold is closer to the truth, or are we all just on the Anti-Isaac squad?