Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market
Basic
25
Ṁ3843
2028
70%
Every challenger he faces will not be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
49%
In his first challenge, he will either beat an Indian challenger or lose to a non-Indian challenger. Indian meaning "ethnically Indian".
40%
Every challenger he faces will be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
28%
He will marry while world champion
24%
He will stay champion until he marries. (marry then lose at next defense, YES), (marry + defend once, NO), (lose before marrying, NO),
16%
Will only be champion for ~1 year
14%
Will defend his title at least three times
9%
He will change citizenship or country he represents while world champion
6%
Will lose the championship title to someone who has been world champion before
6%
He will become a father while world champion
4%
Will defend his title at least ten times
Resolved
YES
Will be Indian
Resolved
YES
Will do an English interview after winning on that same day
Resolved
YES
Will have won by his opponent resigning or quitting or other irregular outing at least one game

  • Update 2024-18-12 (PST): - "Losing to someone who has been world champion before" refers to losing the world championship title to a person who has previously been world champion (AI summary of creator comment)

  • All "lose to" or "be defeated by" etc refer to the competition for the championship itself. Similarly, Defend refers to defending the championship. Also note that unless otherwise specified, statements such as "will defend his title 3 times" refer to his current holding of the title. For example, say he defends well in 2025 and 2026, then loses in 2027, then wins it again in 2028, then defends it again for the 3rd time in 2029. That would NOT count as defending 3 times. That claim would have been NO as soon as he didn't successfully defend it 3 times in a row from now.

  • Similarly "lose the championship title to someone who..." refers to THIS instance of him being champion.

  • Update 2025-12-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Champion Duration: Gukesh D will hold the world championship title for approximately 1 year, analogous to having a one-year job or anniversary.

    • Loss Condition: He will lose the title the next time he's challenged within the annual candidates tournament world championship challenge system.

#️ Chess
#2024 World Chess Championship
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@Ernie I assume this means one full calendar year i.e Jan 1st to Dec 31st, but it's ambiguous. It could also mean 365 consecutive days (guaranteed) or total number of years in which he was WC (which is guaranteed to be at least 3)

@dlin007 i mean as if he had a job for 1 year or had a 1 year anniversary with a partner. i.e. he loses the next time he's challenged within the annual candidates tournament world championship challenge system.

@Ernie i see. so like he loses the WC on the next cycle a la Smyslov or Tal?

@Ernie I think you left out a word here? Assuming this means "Every challenger will be Indian..."

bought Ṁ1 YES

>Will be beaten by someone who has been world champion before

What does this mean? Does it mean "lose a rated, classical chess game to someone who ..." or "lose the world championship to someone who..."?

@Scipio11 will clarify, thanks. In general, I believe in this market that "losing to ..." refers to "losing the title to a person who ..."

bought Ṁ10 YES

"Will have won by his opponent resigning or quitting or other irregular outing at least one game" resolves True -- e.g., the last game was won by Ding resigning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024

What does this mean? Resigning a game is irregular?

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