Which elite global achievers will join manifold? Nobel prize, Nebula, Pope, EGOT, Pulitzer? 50+ Y/N options, research op

Basic

Ṁ5588

Sep 1

29%

Someone with over 100k stackoverflow points

43%

An official holder of a Guinness world record p/p

40%

Forbes 30 under 30 p/p

31%

An attendee of the World Economic Forum at Davos

Join and get verified by mid 2025 June 30.

p/p means past or present although in general most are eternal such as "attendee of..." Means ever

List of Nobels in a Field: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_known_as_the_Nobel_or_the_highest_honors_of_a_field?wprov=sfla1

List of dynastic orders:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynastic_order?wprov=sfla1

Applies regardless of when they join but it must really be them. So you can mine history too. They don't have to be active but must at least place one bet or make one market. Also if they join, get verified, go inactive then attain the achievement it counts.

Update 2025-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve sub-markets to NO if proof of a person joining and being verified is not submitted within a couple of days after the market's closure. The burden of proof is on traders.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@Ernie Irrelevant for the market, but grandson of a ([edit] past) holder of a Guinness world record checking in.

@traders market time is up, but some sub markets are still open over 50% with no proof submitted. They're going to be resolved zero unless a submission shows up within a couple days so FYI

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Ernie Am I correct in interpreting this as Armando's Science paper authorship not checking out?

@TheAllMemeingEye my mistake, no, that is fine.

I've left the high markets open; will reopen market

@Ernie time to resolve and also new version for the future?

@Ernie I am published in Science (though in a paper with several hundred authors)

@ArmandodiMatteo could you send a link? Private message is okay too I wasn't able to find it

@Ernie https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan4338

why isnt this one resolved yet

I don't know what p/p means but I do know someone on Manifold who holds a guinness world record

Edit: p/p means past or present... as it says in the description

@Ernie works if i share via DM?

@firstuserhere yes I just need some way to verify their id and the record

Can't believe no one has pointed out that this isn't verifiable except in-group.

ETA elite yes, global yes, "achievers" arguable. Would have been simpler to put "Any Whiffenpoof".

@ClubmasterTransparent how do we know the bushes were skull and bones? Or is it still not really confirmed?

@mqp are you a chess GM yet

Why are a bunch of these trading above 50% when the title is about who joins first?

@jskf it's unlinked so they all can run to end

@jskf Nobody really tried to make money here yet. If you post a claim I'll check and can resolve immediately

https://manifold.markets/CGPGrey

Verified, has over 100M YouTube views.

In the description it says they can join at any time, but the presence of answers like this at such a low percentage makes me think I am misunderstanding the question. What am I missing?

https://manifold.markets/LexFridman

Verified and has over 1M Twitter followers, but some people claim it isn't really him.

https://manifold.markets/LawrenceLessig

https://publicintelligence.net/2013-bilderberg-meeting-participant-list/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Bilderberg_Conference

He has created 1 question, is verified, and joined after this question was created.

@Eliza 🤔 , he joined 1 hour after this question was created.

I assume this question only counts people who joined the site after the question was created?

Kinda funny how the list autosorted to that order

@ByrneHobart rooting for you

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