By when will Starliner-1 launch?

Premium

Ṁ54k

2026

2025-03-31

2025-06-30

2025-09-30

2025-12-31

57%

2026-12-31

Starliner-1, the next planned Starliner flight, is currently scheduled for "Early 2025". When will it actually launch?

Each option resolves Yes if Starliner-1 launches on or before that date, local time at the launch site.

I will add more answers and/or extend the close date as appropriate.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Rockets

#Starliner

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bought Ṁ3,433 NO

bought Ṁ50 NO

I'm betting NO on the latest dates, because they have the best odds.

The program is done. You don't recover from two consecutive failures.

There's a market that is directly about that, albeit with a deadline for an announcement this year.

How does this resolve if there's an uncrewed cargo flight to the ISS? Does that count as Starliner 1 or not?

I think the best approach, and most consistent with this market:
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-another-starliner-fli

is to just go by the name of the mission. If NASA calls it Starliner-1, it's Starliner-1.

Will you close early if reliable sources say Starliner is cancelled?

Yes. Might wait a little bit to see what comes out of the mess, and wait for trading prices to settle in the relevant ways, but I expect that's a timeframe of days at most. If there are rumors of un-cancellation and the prices aren't stably near 0% I'd wait at least a bit.

bought Ṁ1,250 NO

reposted

If there is another Starliner test flight before Starliner-1, that would certainly make the 2025-03-31 date look unlikely.

/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-another-starliner-fli

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