Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
7
Ṁ15552027
22%
chance
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1W
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Resolution will be based on this Wikipedia page or its successor, if possible. If it significantly changes criteria or ceases to update, I will do my best to resolve based on other credible reporting and the same criteria.
Major war is defined as 10,000 or more combat-related deaths in current or previous year.
Nuclear powers will include the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
The conflict in question must not currently be listed on the "major wars" section of the page in question, as of question creation. That list is the Myanmar conflict, Arab-Israeli conflict, Insurgency in the Maghreb, Russo-Ukrainian War, and Sudanese civil war.
UTC time.
Previously: /EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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